The second quarter was likely the low point for economic activity and the consensus forecast calls for a fairly strong rebound in activity in the current quarter and a slowing pace in improvement thereafter. However, the outlook remains uncertain, particularly amid ongoing US COVID-19 outbreaks. We believe the outlook for economic activity is largely dependent on the course of the pandemic, the amount of additional fiscal relief from the government, and the timeline for a vaccine. Notably, the effects of the pandemic continue to weigh heavily on the labor market. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up slightly as the US equity market has nearly recovered all of its pandemic-fueled decline and the worst of the economic data appears to be in the rearview mirror.

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