We expect US economic growth to moderate in 2020 toward trend growth of 1.8% compared to 2.3% in 2019. Our thesis is largely underscored by the belief that the impact of monetary policy on economic growth is somewhat lagged, and the more accommodative monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and other global central banks throughout 2019 should provide a tailwind for the economy in 2020. Though slow global growth continues to create a headwind for the US economy, and ongoing trade and Brexit negotiations may cause bumps in the road during 2020, we believe the Fed’s shift toward more aggressive policy accommodation in 2019 sets the stage for ongoing slow economic growth in the new year.

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