by Shumaila Ashraf | Apr 12, 2021 | Monthly Review
We believe economic growth is poised to accelerate meaningfully in the current quarter as vaccine distribution becomes more widespread in the US amid an ongoing backdrop of robust fiscal support, low interest rates, and accommodative monetary policy. The vaccine...
by Shumaila Ashraf | Mar 10, 2021 | Monthly Review
Estimates for US gross domestic product (GDP) growth this year have been revised higher. The current Bloomberg consensus estimate for 2021 US GDP growth is 5.5% (following a 3.5% decline last year). Although the labor market is still a long way from a full recovery,...
by Shumaila Ashraf | Feb 9, 2021 | Monthly Review
We believe financial market participants are mostly shrugging off current economic data, which have been somewhat soft (including last week’s employment report), in anticipation of a stronger recovery later this year. The recent passage of a $900 billion COVID-19...
by Shumaila Ashraf | Jan 13, 2021 | Monthly Review
While we remain optimistic about the longer-term outlook, recent economic data suggests that the economy has lost momentum as virus cases have risen. We believe the near-term will remain challenging as the labor market remains under pressure and many regions have...
by Shumaila Ashraf | Dec 8, 2020 | Monthly Review
The economy has improved significantly from the early stage of the pandemic, but GDP remains well below its pre-pandemic peak and unemployment remains elevated. In the near-term, we believe downside risks to the economy remain due to a resurgence of the virus and the...
by Shumaila Ashraf | Nov 10, 2020 | Monthly Review
While near-term headwinds from the pandemic and lack of additional fiscal relief continue to present downside risks to the recovery, we are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook for next year. We continue to believe the trajectory of economic growth...
