This week’s economic data was mostly favorable. Though high inflation, supply chain constraints, and the ongoing health crisis continue to impact the overall economy, recent data supports the view that economic growth has picked up in the current quarter.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) increased 0.9% month-over-month in October, slightly above expectations and driven by widespread gains, following a 0.1% increase in September. On a year-over-year basis, the LEI was up 9.3% in October versus up 9.1% in September, suggesting economic growth has accelerated in the current quarter. Despite ongoing supply chain headwinds, the Conference Board expects economic growth to remain strong through year-end. Furthermore, the Conference Board expects the economy will continue to grow at an above-trend pace in the first quarter of next year.