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Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

Labor Market Softens

August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the

Fed Holds Amid Mixed Signals

This week included the much-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on July 29th. The Federal Reserve held its policy

Treasury Yields Rise on Data

July 24th, 2026 A renewed climb in oil prices and firm economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs

2/26– Weekly Economic Highlights

Treasury yields climbed this week, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising roughly 12 basis points from last Friday to 1.45% (up 54 basis points year-to-date), and the 5-year Treasury yield rising 19 basis points week-over-week to 0.77% (up 41 basis points year-to-date), at the time of this report. Meanwhile, the short end of the Treasury yield curve remains anchored near 0.0%, driven by ongoing accommodative monetary policy. The ICE BofA MOVE Index (a measure of U.S. Treasury yield volatility) jumped more than 20% week-over-week, to its highest level since last April. The spread between 2-year Treasury yields and 10-year Treasury yields has widened to 131 basis points from 54 basis points in the last six months. We believe the continued steepening of the Treasury yield curve is consistent with an improving economic outlook, more widespread vaccine distribution, the anticipation of ongoing fiscal stimulus, and a pick-up in inflation.

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