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Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

Labor Market Softens

August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the

Fed Holds Amid Mixed Signals

This week included the much-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on July 29th. The Federal Reserve held its policy

Treasury Yields Rise on Data

July 24th, 2026 A renewed climb in oil prices and firm economic data pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh highs

3/5– Weekly Economic Highlights

U.S. nonfarm payrolls were stronger than expected in February, up 379,000, versus the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 200,000. January payrolls were also revised up by 117,000. Payrolls in the leisure and hospitality sector improved in February and were up 355,000, following a combined decline of 523,000 in December and January. The unemployment rate declined to 6.2% in February from 6.3% in January. The participation rate was unchanged in February at 61.4%, and remained well below pre-pandemic levels. On a year-over-year basis, the size of the US civilian labor force has declined by more than 4.2 million people. Meanwhile, nearly ten million people remain unemployed. Workers who classified themselves as employed but absent from work in February continued to understate the unemployment rate by about 0.5%. The U-6 underemployment rate, which includes those who are marginally attached to the labor force and employed part time for economic reasons, was unchanged at 11.1% in February.

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