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Fed Faces Tough Rate Decision

September 11, 2026 Inflation data took center stage this week ahead of next Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and

Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

Labor Market Softens

August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the

Fed Holds Amid Mixed Signals

This week included the much-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on July 29th. The Federal Reserve held its policy

10/8– Weekly Economic Highlights

Job growth was weaker than expected in September, but the unemployment rate fell below 5% for the first time since March 2020. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 194,000 in September, versus the consensus forecast of 500,000. However, July and August payrolls were revised up a total of 169,000. On a trailing 3-month and 6-month basis, payrolls increased at a solid pace, up an average of 550,000 and 582,000 per month, respectively. The U-3 unemployment rate declined to 4.8% in September from 5.2% in August, a bigger decline than expected. The labor participation rate declined slightly to 61.6% in September and remains lower than the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. The employment-population ratio increased modestly to 58.7%, but also remains below the pre-pandemic level of 61.1%. The U-6 underemployment rate, which includes those who are marginally attached to the labor force and employed part time for economic reasons, declined to 8.5% in September from 8.8% in August (versus 7.0% in February 2020). Annualized average hourly earnings were up by 4.6% in September versus 4.0% in August, reflecting strong wage growth driven in part by the ongoing imbalance in the supply and demand for labor. Although labor force participation has been slow to recover and more than 7.6 million people remain unemployed in the US, the labor market has made significant progress over the past year.

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