7/2– Weekly Economic Highlights

Job growth was stronger than expected in June. U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 850,000, versus the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 720,000. May payrolls were also revised up by 24,000 to 583,000. On a trailing 3-month and 6-month basis, payrolls increased by an average of 567,000 and 543,000 per month, respectively, which is indicative of a steady recovery in the labor market. The leisure and hospitality sector continue to drive the job gains in June and increased by 343,000. Government payrolls also posted a solid increase of 188,000 in June. The labor participation rate was unchanged at 61.6% in June and is 1.7% lower than the pre-pandemic level. The employment-population ratio was also unchanged in the month at 58.0% and is 3.1% below the pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 5.9% in June from 5.8% in May and remains well above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5% in February 2020. The U-6 underemployment rate, which includes those who are marginally attached to the labor force and employed part time for economic reasons, declined to 9.8% in June from 10.2% in May (versus 7.0% in February 2020). The index of aggregate private weekly payrolls was up 2.8% in June from February 2020, suggesting a solid increase in aggregate wages. Still, nearly 9.5 million people remained unemployment in June (up from 9.3 in May) and 42% of those had been unemployment for more than 27 weeks.

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