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Fed Raises Rates

September 18, 2026 The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point on

Fed Faces Tough Rate Decision

September 11, 2026 Inflation data took center stage this week ahead of next Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and

Jobs Data Shifts Fed Outlook

September 4, 2026 The prior week’s Jackson Hole keynote by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a more hawkish

Fed Signals Patience

August 28, 2026 Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole address this morning, placing inflation firmly at

Labor Market Softens

August 7, 2026 The July employment report was the week’s dominant story as U.S. employers unexpectedly cut jobs during the

Fed Holds Amid Mixed Signals

This week included the much-anticipated Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluding on July 29th. The Federal Reserve held its policy

9/17– Weekly Economic Highlights

Retail sales were stronger than expected in August, up 0.7% month-over-month versus expectations for a 0.7% decline. This follows a downwardly revised decline of 1.8% in July. The month-over-month gain in August was driven largely by increases in online shopping, furniture and home furnishings, and general merchandise stores. These gains were partially offset by declines in vehicles, electronics and appliances, sporting goods, hobby, musical instruments, and bookstores, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Excluding vehicles and gas, retail sales were up 2.0% month-over-month, following a 1.4% decline in July. In our view, the August retail sales report indicates that consumers have the propensity to spend but their spending patterns continue to be influenced by the pandemic, with the delta virus outbreak driving more people back to online shopping in the month. Furthermore, we believe high prices fueled by supply chain constraints on bigger ticket items like vehicles and appliances may now be pressuring sales of those items. Overall, we believe consumer spending on goods and services combined, will be highly correlated with US labor market conditions. However, the Covid situation is likely to continue to influence wallet share, as well as supply chains and prices, through the holiday season. Retail inventories are running well below their 5-year average level, and US ports remain congested. We believe retailers with scale and superior supply chain infrastructure will outperform smaller retailers this holiday, given the challenging dynamics.

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