December 2020 – Bond Market Review

The economy has improved significantly from the early stage of the pandemic, but GDP remains well below its pre-pandemic peak and unemployment remains elevated. In the near-term, we believe downside risks to the economy remain due to a resurgence of the virus and the ongoing stalemate in Congress over additional fiscal relief. Economic data is likely to soften in the next few months, in our view, as many regions implement renewed lockdown measures. Looking further ahead, however, we remain very optimistic about progression toward a vaccine, which should help propel the economic recovery next year. A limited number of vaccine doses are expected to be available before year-end, and we expect more widespread distribution of a vaccine by the second or third quarter of next year. We believe ongoing progress on both vaccines and therapeutics will help fuel the economic recovery in 2021, especially in the back half of the year. We also expect the Fed’s highly accommodative monetary policy framework will continue to provide support for the financial markets.

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