December 2024 – Bond Market Review

The results from the US elections provided some clarity to the direction of fiscal policy and removed some of the political uncertainty that had been affecting capital markets. It is our view that the Federal Reserve will continue the course of easing monetary policy as the labor market normalizes and growth trends slower. In November, consumer spending once again drove solid economic growth. While the consumer has been resilient, declining savings rates, growing credit card debt, higher delinquencies, and a moderating labor market pose potential headwinds to future economic growth. Inflationary trends are subsiding, but core levels remain above the Fed’s target. The labor market is showing signs of cooling, reflecting an improved  balance between supply and demand for workers. Given the cumulative effects of restrictive monetary policy and tighter financial conditions, we believe the economy will gradually soften and the Fed will continue to lower rates in the near-term, then pursue a moderate, data dependent pace through 2025.

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