November 2021 – Bond Market Review
Nov 9, 2021 | Monthly Review
Real US gross domestic product (GDP) growth decelerated in the third quarter amid widespread supply chain disruptions and a surge in the Covid Delta variant, but we believe economic activity has reaccelerated modestly in the current quarter. The consensus forecast calls for 4.9% GDP growth in the fourth quarter following growth of just 2.0% in the third quarter (according to the advance estimate). Covid infection rates in the US have recently eased and the labor market has continued to improve. Inflation continues to run hot, as supply has not been able to keep pace with demand across many parts of the economy. We expect pricing pressures to remain elevated over the near-term, but believe tailwinds from fiscal spending, accommodative monetary policy, and continued progress on vaccinations will continue to support an above-trend pace of economic growth.