October 2020 – Bond Market Review
Oct 8, 2020 | Monthly Review
US equities experienced a moderate selloff in September (with the S&P 500 index down 3.9% month-over-month) and investment grade corporate credit spreads widened modestly (based on the ICE BofA US Corporate Index). In our view, the recent repricing of risk assets has been rational and consistent with the evolving economic and political backdrop. The economy has improved significantly from the depths of the pandemic crisis earlier this year, but the recovery is losing steam. We continue to believe the outlook for the economy hinges largely on the course of the pandemic, the timing and amount of additional fiscal relief, and the timeline for a vaccine. While we remain optimistic about the progress toward a vaccine, we are seeing a resurgence of the virus in some locations and negotiations in Congress over a Phase 4 fiscal relief package remain at a stalemate. While we have a high degree of confidence that another round of fiscal stimulus will ultimately be passed, the timeline has been pushed out and the chances of getting something done before the November election have dimmed. This may not bode well for the fourth quarter and we anticipate near-term economic data may soften. We believe financial markets are potentially poised for increased volatility through year-end.