September 2020 – Bond Market Review

The US economy continues to experience a somewhat uneven and slowing pace of recovery, consistent with more of a U-shaped (rather than V-shaped) recovery, in our view. However, the outlook for the economy remains uncertain. We believe the outlook is largely dependent on the course of the pandemic, the amount of additional fiscal relief from the government, and the timeline for a vaccine. The Fed’s highly accommodative monetary policy framework, along with a swift and robust fiscal policy response from the government earlier this year, has provided support for the financial markets amid a very challenging economic backdrop. We believe financial markets may be poised for increased volatility through year-end due to the upcoming election, a potential resurgence in virus cases this fall, and an unclear outlook for additional fiscal relief. If the expected timeline for a COVID-19 vaccine was pushed into second half of next year or beyond, we believe that would fuel a significant amount of financial market volatility as well.

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